2012 Mongolia Projects

Impact of Mongolia's Extreme Climatic Conditions

Project Website - Rafael Telles Tenorio de Siqueira, Ke Ke Jaffuel, and Angela Jaffuel

Climate plays an important role in our lives.  When it rains we have water to drink and to grow crops for food.  We can raise and feed both our families and livestock.  However what happens when a natural disaster affects our lives altering this balance.   In Mongolia there are long and harsh climatic conditions, which have a major impact on the lives of the people.  An important question we wish to address here is:  What are the potential repercussions, both immediate and long-term over years to come?  Since this is a short-term pilot study, we will attempt to address the immediate repercussions of a Dzud, a natural disaster of extreme drought followed by an extremely cold winter, a climatic condition unique to Mongolia. 

Here we are going address the most recent Dzud years.  We will illustrate a method to keep track of the temperature differences.  In response to this pilot study, more in-depth questions may be addressed through further research:  What is a 'normal' year?  Can we identify and track temperature changes?  Can we predict what year a Dzud will occur?  Is there a pattern when we view 50 to 100 years of temperature changes?  Is there a shift in a pattern due to global climate change?  

Analyzing Mongolia's Rangeland Productivity with Landsat Data

Project Website - Nathan Berry and Chuck Casper

This GIS demonstration project is in conjunction with the Mongolian Rangelands and Resilience (MOR2) project which studies climate change resilience in Mongolia.  The MOR2 study is interested in four overarching research questions.  The project demonstrated on this website will aid in answering two questions posed by MOR2 researchers.  The first asks how resilient or vulnerable are Mongolian pastoral social-ecological systems to climate change.  The second asks if community-based rangeland ecosystem management (CBREM) increases coupled systems’ resilience to climate change.  To help answer these questions this project has demonstrated the efficacy of using remotely sensed vegetation data to analyze broad scale patterns in productivity on Mongolia’s pasturelands.  

Relating Peak Snow Covered Area, Snow Persistence, and Peak Vegetation Grouth in Northeastern Mongolia

Project Website - Sarah Schmeer and Jason Roudebush

The goal of this project was to use remotely sensed data and GIS analysis to assess the relationship between peak snow covered area (SCA), snow persistence, and peak vegetation growth in a small region of northeastern Mongolia. Snow accumulation can affect vegetation grown by influencing soil moisture (Fassnacht, n.d.). Variations in snow covered area caused by accumulation and redistribution by wind; the resulting differences in reflectivity, insulation, and snowmelt dictate where and when water will be available in the soil. By measuring the distribution and extent of SCA and correlating it with vegetation growth later in the season, it may be possible to predict patterns and abundance of summer vegetation based on the previous winter’s snow.

NDVI as a Predictor of NPP in the Desert Steppe of Mongolia

Project Website - Elsie Denton and Holly Field

The goal of this project was to analyze vegetation patterns in two Central Mongolian soums, Tsogt-Ovoo and Khan khongor. These two soums are located in the northern expanse of the Gobi desert. They are extremely dry and receive little rainfall. They are also very sparsely populated. Since there are few people on hand to carry out observations, it may be of interest to use satellites to track changes in vegetation, particularly as the extent and type of plant cover may be changing as a result of shifts in precipitation pattern driven by climate change.

We conducted our analysis using satellite imagery from MODIS: NDVI (Normalized Vegetation Index) and NPP (Net Primary Productivity) data. A detailed comparison of the two data sets was used to try and tease out what determines when and where NDVI was is better predictor of NPP. Elevation, temperature and precipitation were included as explanatory variables.

A Monthly Snow Cover Analysis, 2000-2012: Taria and Jargalant, Mongolia

Project Website - Aaron Sidder and Tony Vorster

Our project uses GIS and satellite imagery to analyze monthly snow cover from 2000 to 2012 in the Mongolian soums of Jargalant and Tariat. Our snow cover analysis will be used by members of the Mongolian Rangeland and Resilience Program (MOR2) research group, stakeholders in Mongolia, and by educators.

This project is a contribution to the Mongolian Rangeland and Resilience (MOR2) program. MOR2 is exploring how Community-Based Rangeland Ecosystem Management (CBREM) impacts resilience of coupled systems to climate change. MOR2 is a unique partnership between interdisciplinary researchers, practitioners, pastoralists, and policy makers.

Mongolia Rangelands and Resilience: Geographic Information System (GIS) Soum Analysis

Project Website - Garrett Stephens and Chris Binschus

The country of Mongolia has undergone significant land use changes over the last 20 years.  Agriculture is strongly tied to those changes as it is one of the key sectors of the Mongolian economy. Therefore, in order for Mongolia to maintain a stable and prosperous economy it is important to understand the current status of agricultural land use and it’s evolution over the years (Ykhanbai 2006).

This analysis focuses on Saikhan and Bayangol soums of Selenge aimag and because agricultural production is vitally important to that region, we are asking this question: Will NDVI analysis reveal a continued decrease in the amount of arable land in production from 2000 - 2012?

Implications of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Two Soums, Bayanhongor Aimag, Mongolia

Project Website - Kelsea Macllroy and Ron Nelson

The purpose of our project is to provide a basic description of the geography of Mongolia, describe the estimated temperature and precipitation changes, and discuss the implications of these changes. Our goal is to begin to document the spatial differences with respect to two soums, Bayan-Ondor & Bayangovi, located in aimag Bayanhongor, so that these variables can be controlled for in future analysis of the alternative resource management strategies.

Multi-annual Differences in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Managed and Unmanaged Soums, Mongolia

Project Website - David Barnard and Ram Gurung

Long-term shifts in vegetation distribution and production and reaction to environmental perturbations (such as wildfire) is of current concern in the context of global climate change.  This research focused on multi-annual differences in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in research Soum Pair 15 in the Suhkbaatar Aimag of Southeastern Mongolia, compared NDVI changes between community managed and non-community managed soums as well as attempted to correlate wild fire occurance with shifts in NDVI.  We found a decrease in NDVI over a seven year period over both soums.  The decrease was more pronounced in the managed Soum and no changes in NDVI correlated with wild fire occurance.

Spatial Analysis of Climate Change and its Effects on Bat-Ulzii and Uyanga Soums, Uvurkhangai Aimag, Mongolia

Project Website - Eric Gaver and Lauren Droege

The purpose of this project was to determine whether (1) there is a positive corrleation between NDVI data and precipitation data and (2) there is a negative relationship between NDVI and temperature data in Bat-Ulzii and Uyanga Soums, in order to better predict future effects of climate change. We chose to use NDVI, temperature and precipitation data from July because July is in the middle of Mongolia’s growing season.  In order to assess the changes that have occurred throughout Bat-Ulzii and Uyanga, we have calculated differences in each of the above variables between 2005 and 2012, and generated maps in ArcMap 10, as well as graphs within Microsoft Excel, with the results.

Climate Change and Habitat management in South Central Mongolia

Project Website - Greg Fraser and Kirstie Yeager

Mongolia is a land-locked country with a severe and highly variable climate.  The fragile ecosystem that exists here is further degraded by the traditional way of life, nomadic herding.  Nomadic livestock production is linked to the livelihood of nearly half of all Mongolian citizens.   As a result, pastureland makes up about 82% of the land area in Mongolia (Ykhanbai  summary).  Additionally, fresh water is limited, and the fragile nature of this region makes it more susceptible to global warming than most other places in the world. 

Our objectives were to determine if climate change was evident in south central Mongolia and to see if management practices had a positive effect from 2003 to 2012 through increasing greenness.

Phenological Effects of Wildfire on Desert Bighorn Sheep Habitat In Western Colorado (Independent Project)

Project Website - Ben Wilson

Desert bighorn sheep have been shown to be opportunistic and adaptable feeders (Krausman et al. 1989, Leslie and Douglas 1979, Cunningham 1989, Miller and Gaud 1989). Therefore, if wildfire can increase forage primary productivity and/or alter for forage phenology then desert bighorn may take advantage of such effects.  The goal of this study is to analyze the phenological effects of wildfire on desert bighorn sheep habitat and how those effects change over time. I used remotely sensed MODIS imagery data to compare seasonal phenology metrics between burned and unburned desert bighorn habitats over a 12 year period in western Colorado.

Updated: August 29, 2009 © 2009 All Rights Reserved.
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80522 USA