2011 National Park Projects

Washington, D.C. National Parks

Project Website - Amber Childress and Renee Curry

Washington, D.C. presents a unique opportunity to develop a project focused on place-based climate outreach within the National Parks. Set in an urban environment, the 22 designated ‘National Parks’ do not offer the wilderness experience that most people associate when visiting an official national park. Ranging from 1800 acres to less than 10, the parks vary from memorials, such as the Lincoln Memorial, which is the seventh most visited park in the country, to Ford’s Theater, which is amon the least. The diversity and average volume of visitors offer an opportunity to demonstrate and communicate the urban impacts of climate change.

Climate Change in Denali National Park

Project Website - Steven C. M. Hasstedt and Doug Bailey

This research involves investigating the potential climate change impacts on Denali National Park and Preserve (DNPP), Alaska. Our GIS analysis is focused on, 1) analyzing actual lighting strike data to see if anecdotes about recent lightning increases in the DNPP region are true and, 2) predicting potential temperature change impacts on the flora and fauna of the park in accordance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modeling scenarios.

GIS Mapping of Kahiltna Glacial Retreat, Denali Alaska

Project Website - Ha Quang Anh and Ryan Mortenson

Alaska has warmed at more than twice the rate of the continental United States. According to Karl et al 2009, the annual average temperature of Alaska has increased 2.0 Celsius degree (3.4F degree); the winter’s annual average temperature has warmed by 3.50C (6.3F degree) over the past 50 years. The prediction shows that the annual average temperature will increase more by 2100 (from 2.8 to 7.2 Celsius degree (5 to 13F degree)) depending on emission scenarios. This change has been affected to glacier storing. Most of the glaciers are consistently thinning, and only about 10% are surging (P. Haeussler, 2009). Surging refers to periods of relatively high-speed glacial flow following periods of slow flow. Most surging occurs on glaciers with northern exposure. By using photographic records, the changing of glacial landscape has been determined.

Climate classification of Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska

Project Website - Alsanousi, Suksavate, and Masoud

In this project, we aim to analyze the available temperature and precipitation data for KFNP and use the Köppen climate classification system to imitate the possible change that happened or about to happpen in KFNP land cover, The Köppen climate classification is considered to be our base reference about the expected change in KFNP land cover. Our main focus is on the last classification type (E type) since most of KFNP area fits into this class.

Visitor Attachment to Kenai Fjords National Park

Project Website - Shawn Davis and Karina Mullen

Our project focuses on the Park's visitors' attachment to the Park, as determined by visitors themselves through an on-site survey. Visitors also self-reported things they saw that they attributed to climate change during their visit in the Park. Through this data, we visualized visitors' locations around the country and compared their responses to proximity to the Park. Check out our analysis and results to see what we found!

Nunataks and Climate Change Within Kenai Fjords National Park

Project Website - Michelle Desrosiers and Joel Schwab

Our partner park is Kenai Fjords, located on the Kenai Peninsula of Southern Alaska. We chose to focus our analysis on nunataks. Nunataks are "islands in a sea of ice," or mountain ridges and peaks that rise above the surface of glaciers. These peaks harbor unique ecosystems, and are possible refugia from the last glacial maxima. Climate change threatens to change these unique habitats, which support may rare plant specis of conservation concern in Alaska.

Kenai Fjords National Park Sea Level Rise

Project Website - Max Jackl and Jona King

As the global climate continues to change, warming at northern latitudes is projected to continue, and sea level is expected to rise proportionally. As the Kenai Fjords sit literally at water’s edge, the potential for major geographical changes with the changing sea level is high. It is therefore important to understand how the park will evolve over the coming decades due to the rise.

Climate Change Effects on Coral Bleaching in Dry Tortugas and Biscayne National Park, Southern Florida

Project Website - Alison Cofer, Stacie Albert, and Ketki Kolte

The study areas chosen for the climate change project are Dry Tortugas and Biscayne National Parks in Southern Florida, USA. Biscayne National Park is located on the east coast of Florida and Dry Tortugas National Park is located 70 miles off the Florida Keys archipelago in the Gulf of Mexico. Apart from the diverse flora and fauna, these parks host one of the world’s largest and most attractive coral reef ecosystems.

The Effect of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise in Southern Florida

Project Website - Matthew Petrowsky and Jamie Mackie

This website will address the impact of sea level rise on Southern Florida in general as well as specifically in the three national parks in the region: Dry Tortugas, Everglades, and Biscayne. In order to assess this risk, global sea level rise scenarios from the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report have been compared to elevation data to determine what will become submerged. In order to characterize the land that will potentially be submerged, we examined the land use of these areas. With the information gathered, management for both the National Parks and the state of Florida can make appropriate decisions to protect valuable natural resources and property.

Boundary Analysis of Bayanhongor Aimag, Mongolia

Project Website - Arren Mendezona Allegretti, Wes Clary, and Derek Pierson

This demonstration project is part of the Mongolian Rangeland Resilience (MOR2) study that aims to advance understanding of the role of community-based natural resource management institutions in building the resilience of coupled systems to climate change in Mongolia. Specifically, this project targets MOR2’s third research question: What are the implications of temporal and spatial scales, and differing physical, ecological, and social system boundaries for understanding and managing the resilience of coupled systems? To tackle this question, we focus on analyzing the relationship of intersecting and overlapping ecological, physical, and political boundaries within the aimag or province of Bayanhonger, Mongolia. This boundary analysis involves the understanding of coupled system dynamics, where social and ecological boundaries are ambiguous and mismatched with political and administrative boundaries (Fernandez-Gimenez, 2009; Fernandez-Gimenez, 2002; Fernandez-Gimenez & Le Febre, 2006).

Climate Change and Glacial Retreat on Mount Rainier

Project Website - Ian Hogan and Damien Borcovsky

Rather than attempt to produce a complex predictive model by correlating past glacier behavior to past climate trends as some authors have done e.g. Nylan, 2004; Pelto, M. S.,2011. We will use area data for 26 glaciers recorded in 1914 and 1994 to calculate a change in area trend for glaciers on Mount Rainier. The area of each glacier will be extrapolated to 2050 under the assumption that the 80 year climate trend on Mount Rainier will continue until at least 2050. Although snow and ice ablation is known to accelerate as glacier area decreases this study will use a more conservative analysis which underestimates ablation by assuming the relationship between glacier area and the rate of ablation will be linear.

Climate Change in Rocky Mountain National Park: Predicting Changes in Species Distribution

Project Website - Nathan Jones and Krista Lewicki

Alpine fauna are particularly susceptible to the expected upward shift of vegetation in elevation and latitude. The goal of this project is to analyze and demonstrate the dynamic and interactive consequences of a changing climate on alpine species, including the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus), American pika (Ochotona princeps) and mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) in and around RMNP.

Changes in tick transmission risk of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever linked to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park

Project Website - Kirsten Koehler and Leah Colton

At Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) there is currently little risk of being bitten by the Rocky Mountain wood tick (Dermacentor andersoni), an arthropod vector of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. However, future climate change in Colorado could result in an increase in this risk. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a collaborative climate prediction model administered by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Using this model, future maximum and minimum temperature changes were evaluated for RMNP and the surrounding area.

Rocky Mountain National Park Hydrologic GIS Anlysis

Project Website - Andy Steininger and Peter Kulchawik

Presented here is one such analysis wherein the effects of changes in the average temperatues within Rocky Mountain National Park are correlated to changes in the hydrology within the park. This site details the analysis methods and the results.

Suitable Habitat for Cheatgrass in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, based on Current and Future Climate Data

Project Website - Amanda West and Tewodros Wakie

Given predicted climate change scenarios, cheatgrass may be expected to habit areas where it is not currently present in the park. These areas may be of great importance to the preservation of native habitats. Using ArcGIS, ClimateWNA, and Maxent computer software we created maps of predicted cheatgrass distributions based on current and future climate models. These maps may be useful to land managers in selecting areas where cheatgrass removal and management efforts should be focused. They will also assist the general public in understanding the impacts of climate change on species distribution in RMNP.

Updated: August 29, 2009 © 2009 All Rights Reserved.
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80522 USA