Introduction
Location Map
Base Maps
Database Schema
Conventions
GIS Analyses
Flowchart
GIS Concepts
Results
Conclusion
References
Top
Results
| Maps: |
| Population Density Change (2005 - 2050) |
| Population Density 2005, 2020, 2050 |
| Bio 02: Mean diurnal temperature range |
| Bio 10: Mean temperature of the warmest quarter |
| Bio 13: Precipitation of the wettest period |
| Bio 17: Precipitation of the driest quarter |
| Bio 19: Precipitation of the coldest quarter |
| Final Model for Population Density Response to Climate Change in Ethiopia: |
| Population =86.51334 + [bio02_37NR.img] * (-0.42538) + [bio10_37NR.img] * (-0.120510) + [bio13_37NR.img] * (0.11683) + [bio17_37NR.img] * (-0.113230) + [bio19_37NR.img] * (-0.03757) |
| Model Interpretation |
| The adjusted R squared value for our model was low (10%) indicating that it failed to account for the majority of variance in the data. This is not surprising considering only climate data and topographic features (slope, DEM) were used in our model as explanatory variables. Clearly other factors determine the distribution of human population densities in Ethiopia. The coefficients associated with each explanatory variable were mostly intuitive. For example, it is not surprising that mean temperatures during the warmest quarters tend to be associated with lower population densities, and the model indicates that precipitation during the wettest period positively influences population densities. We cannot biologically explain the coefficient for bio 17, precipitation of driest quarter. The coefficient associated with this variable indicates that wetter conditions during the driest period negatively impact population densities, which seems counterintuitive. It is possible that adding interaction terms to future models could help tease apart the meaning in this observation as associations between human population densities and climates are likely to be complex. |
Variables that were the best predictors of human population density in Ethiopia:
No topographic variables (neither elevation nor slope).
Climate variables:
- Bio 2 = Mean diurnal temperature range [mean(period max - min)]
- negative relationship
- Bio 10 = Mean temperature of warmest quarter
- negative relationship
- Bio 13 = Precipitation of wettest period
- positive relationship
- Bio 17 = Precipiation of driest quarter
- negative relationship
- Bio 19 = Precipiation of coldest quarter
- negative relationshi
| Bio02 |
Mean Diurnal Temperature Range (Bio 02) |
Current Climate 2050 Climate Change (2050 - Current) |
 |
| Created by: Kelly Hopping and Greg Wann, December 5, 2009 Projection: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N Data Source: WorldClim, HADCM3, 30 arc-seconds (~1 km); http://www.worldclim.org/download |
| Bio10 |
Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (Bio 10) |
Current Climate 2050 Climate Change (2050 - Current) |
 |
| Created by: Kelly Hopping and Greg Wann, December 5, 2009 Projection: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N Data Source: WorldClim, HADCM3, 30 arc-seconds (~1 km); http://www.worldclim.org/download |
| Bio13 |
Precipitation of the Wettest Period (Bio 13) |
| Current Climate 2050 Climate Change (2050 - Current) |
 |
| Created by: Kelly Hopping and Greg Wann, December 5, 2009 Projection: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N Data Source: WorldClim, HADCM3, 30 arc-seconds (~1 km); http://www.worldclim.org/download |
| Bio17 |
Precipitation of the Driest Quarter (Bio 17) |
| Current Climate 2050 Climate Change (2050 - Current) |
 |
| Created by: Kelly Hopping and Greg Wann, December 5, 2009 Projection: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N Data Source: WorldClim, HADCM3, 30 arc-seconds (~1 km); http://www.worldclim.org/download |
| Bio19 |
Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (Bio 19) |
| Current Climate 2050 Climate Change (2050 - Current) |
 |
| Created by: Kelly Hopping and Greg Wann, December 5, 2009 Projection: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 37N Data Source: WorldClim, HADCM3, 30 arc-seconds (~1 km); http://www.worldclim.org/download |
Disclaimer: The content of this webpage and results are not to be used in any context relating to scientific communication or inference on Ethiopian populations. This analysis has not been subject to any peer review by qualified scientists and thus is not suitable as a reference for any material.
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